As we all know, CNC machine tools are the mainstream products of the machine tool industry. The focus of economic development in the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" is to realize the transformation of economic growth mode. Advanced manufacturing is the transformation direction of traditional manufacturing. The technological transformation of traditional industries such as automobiles, machinery, home appliances, textiles, agricultural machinery, environmental protection, etc. The demand for CNC machine tools continues to rise; the development of high-tech industries such as electronic information, biological engineering, new energy and new materials has opened up new demands for precision, high-efficiency, and special-purpose CNC machine tools; The revitalization of the old industrial base and the accelerated development of the central and western regions will provide a domestic market for the development of the CNC machine tool industry; economic globalization, the transfer of international capital and industries to China, the exchange of international technology and talents, the strong development of China’s international trade, etc. , Provides an external environment for the development of China's CNC machine tool industry, and puts us in a rare period of strategic development.
The 11th Five-Year Plan for CNC Machine Tools
Since entering the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", the state has successively promulgated the "Several Opinions on Accelerating the Revitalization of the Equipment Manufacturing Industry" and the "National Medium and Long-term Science and Technology Development Plan"; in 2009, in response to the impact of the international financial crisis, the State Council issued the " National Equipment Manufacturing Industry Revitalization Plan. Under the national policy of revitalizing the equipment manufacturing industry, the state has issued a series of policies to strongly support the industry. Industrial policies, import and export policies, and tax policies have greatly promoted the continuous and rapid development of the machine tool industry in recent years. Among them, tax incentives The benefits brought by the policy to the enterprise have greatly increased the profitability of the enterprise. The strong support of the policy has given the industry a special advantage, to a certain extent, has ensured the rapid development of the industry and a high safety margin.
CNC machine tools belong to the metal cutting machine tool manufacturing industry. There are many methods for processing mechanical parts in modern machinery manufacturing: in addition to cutting, there are casting, forging, welding, stamping, extrusion, etc. However, all parts that require high precision and fine surface roughness are generally required The final machining is performed on the machine tool by cutting. The metal cutting machine tool is a machine that uses cutting methods to process metal blanks into machine parts. According to data from China Machine Federation, in 2010, CNC metal cutting machine tools grew significantly, with output increasing by 66.71% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 67.17 percentage points higher than the previous year. In the past 10 years, the average annual compound growth rate of my country's CNC metal cutting machine tool output was only 31.93%. The growth data in 2010 means that the development of CNC metal cutting machine tools has entered a new stage.
In the past five years, the average annual compound growth rate of my country's CNC machine tool output was 37.39%, the average annual compound growth rate in the past 10 years was 29.94%, and the compound growth rate in the past 15 years was 22.10%. Driven by the national revitalization of the equipment manufacturing industry and the transfer of international industries, the growth rate of my country's equipment and tool purchase investment will continue to maintain a level of about 20% in the next 5 to 10 years, and the demand for the machine tool industry will continue to maintain rapid growth. Luo Baihui, head of the International Mould and Metal Plastic Industry Suppliers Association, said that driven by demand, the output of CNC machine tools in my country has maintained rapid growth. With the deepening of economic structural adjustments, listed companies of CNC machine tools and CNC system equipment are expected to grow at a high rate. continue. In 2010, the consumption of CNC machine tools exceeded US$6 billion, and the number of units exceeded 100,000, indicating that CNC machine tools have become the mainstream of machine tool consumption, and my country's future CNC machine tool market will be huge.
At present, Shenyang Machine Tool and Qinchuan Development are the leading enterprises in the field of metal cutting machine tools in China, and the prosperity of the cutting machine tool market will directly improve their operating performance. At the end of last year, Shenyang Machine Tool has announced a performance increase of more than 5 times.
Data from China Machine Federation also showed that the rapid growth in demand for CNC machine tools in 2010 brought huge demand for CNC systems, and the number of CNC system equipment for the year more than doubled year-on-year. Listed companies in the CNC system equipment industry include Huadong CNC, Kunming Machine Tool, Fain CNC, and Nantong Technology.
(1) The iron and steel industry plans to continue the "duo" of mergers and reorganizations on the one hand and energy saving and emission reduction on the other hand
Recently, there has been news from the market that the first draft of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" for the steel industry has been basically completed. The next step is to solicit opinions from companies and relevant departments, and it is expected to be officially released soon.
According to an authoritative person familiar with the matter, the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" of the steel industry will still focus on two main lines: encouraging mergers and reorganizations and optimizing industrial layout, as well as eliminating outdated production capacity and energy conservation and emission reduction.
Among them, in terms of joint reorganization, during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, several super-large steel companies with a capacity of 50 million to 60 million tons or more will be formed. The production capacity of the top 10 domestic steel companies will account for more than 60% of the national production capacity; The requirements for eliminating outdated production capacity and energy conservation and emission reduction have become stricter, and standards have been raised.
Focus on the layout of the two major structural adjustments, many steel companies have already occupied positions in advance
Regarding the current circulated content of the first draft of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" for the steel industry, "there are actually two major structural adjustments." On January 28, Lange Steel analyst Zhang Lin told this reporter, "The first is organizational structural adjustment. -Mergers and reorganizations, and then the adjustment of the layout and structure-the iron and steel industry is shifting to the coastal areas along the river."
According to the aforementioned authoritative person, in the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, super-large steel enterprises with a level of 50 million to 60 million tons and a number of large steel companies with a level of 10 million to 30 million tons or more will be formed. The key enterprises include Baosteel, Anshan Iron and Steel, Wuhan Iron and Steel, Hebei Iron and Steel Group, Shagang, Shandong Iron and Steel Group, Shougang, Bohai Iron and Steel Group and other large steel enterprise groups."
In terms of industrial layout, according to the source, the transfer of the iron and steel industry to the coast and the river will be promoted, and the production capacity of coastal and riverside iron and steel enterprises will account for more than 40% of the national production capacity. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, on the one hand, the construction of large-scale steel projects in Zhanjiang, Fangchenggang, Caofeidian, and Shandong coastal areas will be accelerated; on the other hand, the preliminary preparations for the coastal steel projects in Fujian and Jiangsu will be completed.
In fact, although the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" for the steel industry has not yet been officially released, many steel companies have begun to "occupy seats" in advance. Before Hebei Iron and Steel Group merged and reorganized private steel enterprises in the province, Shandong Iron and Steel Group reorganized and restarted, Ansteel Group intends to acquire Sansteel Group "enclosure" Fujian and recently Valin Steel restarted private placement to promote Valin Group's overall listing.
Shanxi Securities also pointed out in its previous investment strategy for the iron and steel industry in 2011 that the restructuring and integration of the iron and steel industry began to accelerate in 2010, and large enterprise groups such as Baosteel Group, Anshan Iron and Steel Group, Hebei Iron and Steel Group, Shandong Iron and Steel Group, and Shagang Group began to take shape. . It can be expected that the restructuring and integration of the steel industry will continue to be the whole process of industry development throughout 2011, and will show many bright spots.
The "Eleventh Five-Year" emission reduction tasks will be more stringent to complete the "Twelfth Five-Year" requirements
As for the other main line of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" to eliminate outdated production capacity and energy conservation and emission reduction, the current requirements and standards will be further tightened compared to the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period.
On January 27th, Zhu Hongren, chief engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, revealed at a press conference that day that the value-added energy consumption of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2010 is expected to fall by more than 6%, completing the 11th Five-Year Plan. Among them, steel The elimination of outdated production capacity in 18 industries, including cement, coke, etc., has been fully completed.
Zhu Hongren also stated that as the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the task of energy conservation and emission reduction in 2011 will be more arduous. Compared with the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”, the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction will also increase carbon dioxide, ammonia nitrogen, Binding control indicators such as nitrogen oxides, these indicators will put forward higher requirements for industrial operation.
In recent years, my country's manufacturing industry has achieved sustained and rapid development. Countries all over the world are importing large quantities of Chinese products, and China's exports of mechanical and electrical products have accounted for the majority. In the current economic cold wave and crisis, although the machinery industry has been greatly affected, the total scale and total output are second only to the United States, surpassing Japan, and ranking second in the world. Exports have surpassed Germany and reached the first place in the world. In 2009, China Automobile production has surpassed the United States and ranks first in the world. China has become a veritable world manufacturing country. Recently, due to the appreciation of the renminbi and the rapid increase in domestic labor costs, coupled with the economic cold wave and crisis, the export of low- and medium-grade products has been severely affected. It has forced us to improve the technical level of the machinery industry as soon as possible, turn the crisis into an opportunity, and strive for a strong manufacturing country. .
In the ranking of the "Top 10 Manufacturing Powers in the World" published in the "Global Manufacturing White Paper" in 2010, China ranked third. In this year's "World Machinery 500", the United States ranked first with 126 companies, Japan ranked second with 124 households, and my country ranked third with 77 households. However, none of China was selected in the top 10 of the world's top 500 machinery companies this year; among the world's top 100 machinery, China was only selected to nine.
Since 2000, my country's machinery manufacturing industry has developed extremely rapidly. Not only has the output of automobiles, machine tools, shipbuilding, and power generation equipment increased rapidly, but the product level has also been continuously improved. According to Luo Baihui, head of the International Mould and Metal Plastic Industry Suppliers Association, the market share of domestic machine tool output value was 56.3% in 2007, 61% in 2008, and continued to increase in 2009, reaching 70.1%. In 2007, the output of CNC machine tools in my country was 123,257, an increase of 32.6% over 2006. In 2008, my country's CNC machine tools were affected by the world economic crisis, and the output was 122,211 units, which was basically the same as that in 2007. From January to December 2008, the output of CNC machine tools in my country was affected by the economic crisis. After July, the output declined, and it has picked up slightly in December. In 2008, my country’s machine tool industry consumed US$19.44 billion in machine tools, ranking first in the world; producing US$13.96 billion in machine tools, ranking third in the world; exporting US$2.11 billion in machine tools, ranking sixth in the world; and importing US$7.59 billion in machine tools, ranking first in the world. Import and export of machine tools exceeded US$5.48 billion. In 2009, the output of CNC machine tools in my country increased significantly, reaching 143,904 sets. The market share of domestic CNC machine tools reached 62%. my country's production of machine tools leaped to the first place in the world. Imported machine tools were US$5.9 billion and exported US$1.41 billion. Over US$4.49 billion, imported and consumed machine tools ranked first in the world for eight consecutive years.
From the perspective of the overall environment, since the second half of 2008, the machinery manufacturing industries of various countries have been affected by the financial crisis to varying degrees, and several major automobile and machine tool producing countries have suffered particularly severe losses. Automobile production in all countries in the world has fallen sharply, but China's automobile production and sales have not fallen, but continue to rise sharply. In 2009, China's automobile production has surpassed the United States and ranked first in the world.
In the first half of 2009, the statistics of machine tool production in major countries are as follows: Japanese machine tool industry orders fell by 84.6% in the first quarter of 2009, and both domestic demand and exports fell, which affected sales by 46.2%. U.S. machine tool orders began to decline in November 2008. New orders received in April 2009 were only US$97.04 million, a decrease of 42% from March 2009 and a 78% decrease from April 2008. Orders from January to April 2009 The amount decreased by 71% year-on-year. Germany has revised its forecast for the 2009 annual order trend from a 7% drop to a drop of 10% to 20%. Total German machine tool orders fell by 70% year-on-year. Compared with the same period in 2008, Taiwan’s machine tool exports from January to April 2009 fell by 51.9%, imports fell by 84.6%, total exports fell 51.9% from the same period last year, and exports fell sharply.
Relatively speaking, China's machine tool industry suffered less damage. According to incomplete statistics, the total industrial output value from January to May 2009 decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, sales revenue decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, and total profits decreased by 33.1% year-on-year. These data show that in this financial crisis, China's machine tool industry has not suffered a lot. Statistics show that from January to April 2009, the machine tool industry completed a fixed asset investment of 23.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%; by May 2009, the machine tool industry declared to be included in the national revitalization plan 30 technical transformation projects, total The investment of 7.21 billion yuan will effectively improve the manufacturing level and capabilities of the machine tool industry. In the second half of 2009, the production situation of the machine tool industry improved significantly. Due to the low base in the second half of 2008, the monthly total industrial output value of the machine tool industry has reached a double-digit year-on-year growth rate since July 2009. The specific completion status and year-on-year growth rate speed.